森林资源价值计量理论基础的局限性分析

如何运用价值量指标来计算森林资产的价值,一直引起人们的争议。森林资产价值理论基础呈多元性。但无论是传统马克思主义经济学还是西方主流经济学,都存在局限性。文章对此进行了具体分析,提出“影响因素价值论”,以期解决自然资源定价出现的困惑。     

南方森林经理与可持续发展的思考

从森林可持续发展的概念着手，论述了森林经理与可持续发展的关系及在新形势下森林经理理论定位，并提出了南方森林经营的基本思路。     

Application of real options theory to forestry investment analysis

This paper demonstrates the utility of the real options approach to forestry investment analysis. The main objectives are to discuss the real option theory and show how it can be adopted to model uncertainty and managerial flexibility in forest management and investment. Secondly, we show how to calculate the option values of selected options that may be available to managers of forest industry firms. The paper provides an empirical application, which compares a forestry investment using the static Faustmann model and the real options approach. Four management options are used for the real options approach: an option to delay reforestation, an option to expand the size of the wood processing plant, an option to abandon the processing plant if timber prices fall below a certain level or due to corporate take-over, and multiple options that evaluated all three options together. All options were evaluated using the binomial option-pricing model, where timber values are assumed to follow a multiplicative binomial process. The results show that the Faustmann analysis rejected the investments as unprofitable, while the option analysis showed that all three options were highly valuable if exercised. When real options are considered, the traditional Faustmann model for assessing the profitability of a forestry investment may fail to provide an adequate decision-making framework because it does not properly value management's ability to adjust to shocks in the economy, as well as risks and uncertainty.     

Genetic Relationships among Prunus mume var. pendula Using AFLP Markers

Genetic relationships among Prunus mume var. pendula were studied by using AFLP markers. 18 accessions representing 14 cultivars ofPrunus murne var. pendula were selected from the germplasm collection at the Research Center of China Mci Flower. Seven Mse I-EcoR I AFLP primer combinations revealed 450 legible bands, and 269 of which were polymorphic markers. A similarity matrix was prepared using the simple matching coefficient of similarity and Nei‘s (72) distance coefficient. A UPGMA dendrogram demonstrated the genetic relationships of the cultivars. The information given by AFLP markers was basically consistent with the morphological classification and the evolutionary history of the morphotypes, and roughly supported the new revised classification system for Chinese Mci Cultivars. But there were still several exceptions: 1) the ‘Guhong Chuizhi‘ inserted between the ‘Tiaoxue Chuizhi‘ and the ‘Danfen Chuizhi‘; 2) the ‘Wufu Chuizhi‘ kept off the Pink Pendant Form, and the ‘Moshan Chuizhi‘ was removed from Viridiflora Pendant Form; 3) the ‘Danbi Chuizhi‘ and the ‘Shuangbi Chuizhi‘ of Viridiflora Pendant Form got together well but fell within the Pink Pendant Form.     

Chaos theory and assessment of forest stakeholder attitudes towards Australian forest policy

The Regional Forest Agreement process has dominated Australian forest policy for the past decade. The RFA process set in place a mechanism by which benchmark conservation values were established for forest ecosystems, whilst addressing the needs of the timber industry. The outcomes of a number of RFA's have been fraught with controversy. Key stakeholder groups have shown disagreement with processes and outcomes of methods employed by government both in establishing conservation reserves and areas allocated to timber harvesting. This research uses non-linear techniques to examine the dynamical behavior in stakeholder responses and to identify patterns of behavior that may lead to prediction of stakeholder responses. The method developed in this research provides a bridge between social sciences and Chaos theory.¹     

Prediction of the buckling stress of intermediate wooden columns using the secant modulus

We made several buckling tests of wooden columns with intermediate slenderness ratios () and examined the empirical formulas. On the basis of the examination, we formulated an equation for predicting the buckling stress () of an intermediate wooden column. Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis Carr.) and buna (Japanese beech, Fagus crenata BI.) were used for the studies. A compressive load was applied on the specimen supported with pin ends, and the buckling stress was predicted by the tangent modulus theory and two empirical equations: those of Tetmajer and Newlin-Gahagan. The predicted - relations were compared with the test results, and the applicability of these predictions were examined. Based on the comparisons, we formulated an equation that can predict the - relations of materials with various stress-strain characters in the plastic strain range.     

浅析完善中国森林生态效益补偿制度

随着地球人口的增加和人类活动的加剧,保护森林资源已经提上了各国的议事日程。而对于我国这样的一个贫林国家,森林资源的保护问题与森林生态效益的补偿就显得愈加迫切与重要。文章针对我国现有的森林生态效益补偿制度的沿革、存在的问题进行了分析,并提出我国森林生态效益补偿制度需进一步完善或创新。     

森林有害生物生态控制

从森林生物灾害与森林生态系统功能的关系、森林病虫害防治历史、社会对森林病虫害防治策略以及森林经营目标的需求出发,系统化森林有害生物控制策略———生态控制;定义森林有害生物生态控制;分析森林有害生物生态控制的特点、理论基础以及技术基石;认为自然控制论和自组织理论是森林有害生物生态控制的理论基础,森林有害生物生态控制的技术基石是森林生态系统管理;对森林有害生物生态控制遵循的原则进行讨论,包括生态系统原则、协调性原则、生态平衡原则、生态位原则、环境保护原则、协同进化原则、林副产品安全原则、生态系统稳定性原则、生态系统的高功能原则(生产力、经济效益、生态效益、社会效益)、森林生态系统生物灾害的可持续控制原则;对森林有害生物生态控制及其适用条件进行评价。森林有害生物生态控制与森林有害生物综合管理相比具有多项优点,是未来森林有害生物控制的主要方向,具有广阔的前景。     

基于改进蚁群算法的3-PPR并联机构位置正解研究

针对3-PPR并联机构位置正解问题,运用螺旋理论计算其自由度,并分析其运动特性,同时通过解析法构建该并联机构的完整运动学逆解。将并联机构运动学正解问题的求解转化为对目标函数优化问题的求解,并基于此建立该并联机构正解的目标函数优化模型。通过对基本蚁群算法进行有效的改进,构建了可用于求解连续优化问题的改进蚁群算法。运用该算法求解3-PPR并联机构的运动学正解并进行Matlab仿真分析,对比传统数值方法和改进蚁群算法,证实该算法具有良好的全局寻优能力,并能避免初值和局部最优值对计算结果的影响,可有效应用于求解并联机构的位置正解问题。     

基于Langmuir吸附理论的双孢蘑菇呼吸速率模型

研究了不同温度（5、10、15、20、25℃）下,气调包装的双孢蘑菇呼吸速率随贮藏时间的变化规律。结果表明,双孢蘑菇的呼吸速率随着贮藏时间的延长而不断降低,直至达到动态平衡状态。利用Langmuir吸附理论对双孢蘑菇呼吸速率的测定值进行了解析,建立了不同贮藏温度下的呼吸速率模型。结果显示,双孢蘑菇的呼吸速率随贮藏环境中O2体积分数的增加而升高,随CO2体积分数的增加而降低;最大呼吸速率随温度的增加而增加,且与贮藏温度之间满足Arrhenius方程。